2009 Elections Mozambique political process bulletin Number 35 11 November 2

11 November 2009
www.elections2009.cip.org.mz
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga Research assistant: Tânia Frechauth
_________________________________________________________________________________________
Published by CIP, Centro de Integridade Pública and AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Material may be freely reprinted. Please cite the Bulletin.
To subscribe in English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub Para assinar em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
______________________________________________________________________________________
Guebuza victory confirmed
●
2 extra Renamo seats
●
44.6% turnout
●
Votes falsely invalidated
●
Errors in CNE numbers
The overwhelming victory of Frelimo and Armando Guebuza was confirmed by the National Elections Commission which announced official results this afternoon. But there were two surprises. First, Renamo gained additional parliament seats in Niassa and Sofala, compared to the provincial results, and these apparently come from the requalification of invalid votes (nulos). Second, the CNE admitted the problem of votes being falsely invalidated by polling station staff adding extra ink marks.
Numbers given by the CNE this afternoon definitely contain some errors, and we will try to publish corrected figures tomorrow. The results in the presidential race as given by the CNE were:
Total votes 4 406 093 turnout 44,63%
Nulo/invalid 199 260 4,52%
Branco/blank 264 655 6,01%
Of the valid votes:
Armando Guebuza 2 974 627 75,46%
Afonso Dhlakama 650 679 16,51%
Daviz Simango 340 579 8,64%
In all, the CNE says it reconsidered 372 633 invalid votes (199 260 presidential, 158 396 Assembleia da República, and 14 977 provincial assembly), in a process that continued until 1 am Monday morning. Details are not yet available, but historically about one-third of votes considered invalid at polling stations are accepted as valid by CNE, and two-thirds of those go to Renamo. That probably explains why Renamo has gained two seats in the Assembleia da República, compared to the provincial results.
We note that even after the requalification of nulos, Armando Guebuza has fewer votes than were announced in the provincial results (2 974 627 compared to the provincial total of 2 994 103). We believe that the CNE has excluded at least some polling stations where there was gross ballot box stuffing. In particular, Changara, Tete, had 122 polling stations, but when AIM searched the computer data base of results, it could find only 71 polling stations – the other 51 were apparently excluded, and this may have reduced the vote for Guebuza.
Seats in the national parliament and provincial assemblies are:
Provincia
Assembleia da República
- Parliament
Assembleias Provinciais –
Provincial Asssemblies
Mandatos Seats
Frel
Ren
MDM
MandatosSeats
Frelimo
Renamo
MDM
PDD
Niassa
14
12
2
70
66
2
2
Cabo Delgado
22
19
3
81
73
8
Nampula
45
32
13
91
78
11
2
Zambézia
45
26
19
90
57
31
2
Tete
20
18
2
80
75
5
Mancia
16
12
4
80
61
19
Sofala
20
10
5
5
80
59
1
20
Inhambane
16
15
1
80
80
Gaza
16
16
75
75
Maputo Prov
16
15
1
80
75
5
Maputo Cidade
18
14
1
3
Africa
1
1
Europe
1
1
Total
250
191
51
8
There are inconsistencies in the CNE numbers. The sum of the votes for the three presidential candidates is 3 965 885, while elsewhere in the deliberation it cites the number of valid votes as 3 942 178. And the percentages given by the CNE add up to more than 100%. Similarly, it is not clear if the 199 260 presidential nulos are before or after requalification. More details, corrections and analysis will be presented in a Bulletin tomorrow.
Recognising invalidation
In a strong statement, the CNE recognised the seriousness of ballot papers being invalidated by polling station staff. The CNE said that, once again, it confirmed that people acting in bad faith made votes invalid, in particular by putting an additional ink mark or cross. “Although the number of votes in this situation does not alter the final results of this election, the National Elections Commission vigorously repudiates the practice,” and the CNE notes that this is an illegal action.
___________________________________________________________________________________
Mozambique Political Process Bulletin
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga -- Research assistant: Tânia Frechauth
Material may be freely reprinted and circulated. Please cite the Bulletin.
Published by CIP, Centro de Integridade Pública and AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa
___________________________________________________________________________________
To subscribe: Para assinar:
In English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub
Em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
To unsubscribe: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-unsub
___________________________________________________________________________________
Also on the web: Também na internet:
In English: News on the elections: http://www.elections2009.cip.org.mz
Previous issues of the Bulletin: http://www.bulletin.cip.org.mz
Em Português: Noticias sobre as Eleições: http://www.eleicoes2009.cip.org.mz
Boletims anteriores: http://www.boletim.cip.org.mz
__________________________________________________________________________________
11 November 2009
www.elections2009.cip.org.mz
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga Research assistant: Tânia Frechauth
Published by CIP, Centro de Integridade Pública and AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Material may be freely reprinted. Please cite the Bulletin.
To subscribe in English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub Para assinar em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
Guebuza victory confirmed
●
2 extra Renamo seats
●
44.6% turnout
●
Votes falsely invalidated
●
Errors in CNE numbers
The overwhelming victory of Frelimo and Armando Guebuza was confirmed by the National Elections Commission which announced official results this afternoon. But there were two surprises. First, Renamo gained additional parliament seats in Niassa and Sofala, compared to the provincial results, and these apparently come from the requalification of invalid votes (nulos). Second, the CNE admitted the problem of votes being falsely invalidated by polling station staff adding extra ink marks.
Numbers given by the CNE this afternoon definitely contain some errors, and we will try to publish corrected figures tomorrow. The results in the presidential race as given by the CNE were:
Total votes 4 406 093 turnout 44,63%
Nulo/invalid 199 260 4,52%
Branco/blank 264 655 6,01%
Of the valid votes:
Armando Guebuza 2 974 627 75,46%
Afonso Dhlakama 650 679 16,51%
Daviz Simango 340 579 8,64%
In all, the CNE says it reconsidered 372 633 invalid votes (199 260 presidential, 158 396 Assembleia da República, and 14 977 provincial assembly), in a process that continued until 1 am Monday morning. Details are not yet available, but historically about one-third of votes considered invalid at polling stations are accepted as valid by CNE, and two-thirds of those go to Renamo. That probably explains why Renamo has gained two seats in the Assembleia da República, compared to the provincial results.
We note that even after the requalification of nulos, Armando Guebuza has fewer votes than were announced in the provincial results (2 974 627 compared to the provincial total of 2 994 103). We believe that the CNE has excluded at least some polling stations where there was gross ballot box stuffing. In particular, Changara, Tete, had 122 polling stations, but when AIM searched the computer data base of results, it could find only 71 polling stations – the other 51 were apparently excluded, and this may have reduced the vote for Guebuza.

There are inconsistencies in the CNE numbers. The sum of the votes for the three presidential candidates is 3 965 885, while elsewhere in the deliberation it cites the number of valid votes as 3 942 178. And the percentages given by the CNE add up to more than 100%. Similarly, it is not clear if the 199 260 presidential nulos are before or after requalification. More details, corrections and analysis will be presented in a Bulletin tomorrow.
Recognising invalidation
In a strong statement, the CNE recognised the seriousness of ballot papers being invalidated by polling station staff. The CNE said that, once again, it confirmed that people acting in bad faith made votes invalid, in particular by putting an additional ink mark or cross. “Although the number of votes in this situation does not alter the final results of this election, the National Elections Commission vigorously repudiates the practice,” and the CNE notes that this is an illegal action.
___________________________________________________________________________________
Mozambique Political Process Bulletin
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga -- Research assistant: Tânia Frechauth
Material may be freely reprinted and circulated. Please cite the Bulletin.
Published by CIP, Centro de Integridade Pública and AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa
___________________________________________________________________________________
To subscribe: Para assinar:
In English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub
Em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
To unsubscribe: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-unsub
___________________________________________________________________________________
Also on the web: Também na internet:
In English: News on the elections: http://www.elections2009.cip.org.mz
Previous issues of the Bulletin: http://www.bulletin.cip.org.mz
Em Português: Noticias sobre as Eleições: http://www.eleicoes2009.cip.org.mz
Boletims anteriores: http://www.boletim.cip.org.mz
___________________________________________________________________________________