Mozambique Political Process Bulletin

2008 Local Election Issue 18 – 27 November 2008
--------------------------------------------------------
Published frequently during the election period
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga – Research Assistant: Tania Frechauth
Published by AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa,
and CIP, Centro de Integridade Publica
----------------------------------------------------------

Also in this issue:
Renamo raises the stakes in Nacala
----------------

Huge question over Beira results

The Beira City Elections Commission (CEC) on Tuesday issued the official intermediate results, which are sharply different from the parallel count done by the Electoral Observatory.

For Mayor, the two counts agree, with the CEC giving Daviz Simango 61.9% and the Electoral Observatory giving him 62.1%. Thus it comes as a surprise that the CEC gives Frelimo a majority of 52.7% in the municipal assembly vote, while the Electoral Observatory gives Frelimo only 41%.

So far, the Electoral Observatory has been remarkably accurate, coming very close to the final results – as it does for mayor in Beira. Thus the huge difference between the CEC and the Observatory is totally unexpected and unexplained.

STAE stopped its own provisional count for Beira with only 2/3 of the vote included, but the percentages are also quite close to the Electoral Observatory.

The table in the attached pdf version of the Bulletin gives full details of all three sets of figures.

Renamo raises the stakes in Nacala

Renamo has raised the stakes in Nacala by giving to the Bulletin, CIP and the Electoral Observatory copies of the editais its delegates received in 95 of the 99 polling stations in Nacala. These correspond almost exactly with the numbers collected by the Electoral Observatory in its parallel count, differing at most by one or two votes and even that in only a handful of polling stations.

This confirms the numbers given by the Observatory, showing that a second round of polling will be required, and not the numbers issues by the City Elections Commission (Comissão de Eleições da Cidade, CEC), which indicate Frelimo candidate Chale Ossufu had more than 50% of the vote. By giving copies of the editais to independent observers, Renamo is making clear to the CNE that it would be in a position to mount a challenge to the Constitutional Council if the result is different from the one shown on the editais. Giving copies of editais in this way to independent observers is totally unprecedented for Renamo.

On 22 November Renamo made a formal protest to the Nampula Provincial Election Commission, challenging both the accuracy of the results announced by the Nacala CEC, but also the way they were announced. Renamo says the intermediate results were agreed and signed by only 9 of the 11 members of the city election commission, excluding the two Renamo members. It also says that only the final numbers were given to the CEC to agree, and not a full table with results by polling station.

Intermediate results

Unexpectedly, there is no system to distribute in Maputo the official intermediate results issued by the city and district election commissions. So we have asked our correspondents to supply them. We are posting these results as we collect them on our website. At present we have results for only 17 municipalities.

More nullified votes

In watching the requalification of invalid votes at the CNE in the past two days, we have seen at least two more places, Gondola and Monapo, where votes for Renamo seem to have had an extra ink mark put on them to make them invalid. In all cases, there is a series of votes with the extra mark in a very similar place. Gondola had a parallel count so we were able to check. Sure enough, a single polling station (0926) stood out, with 13% nulos compared to the unusually low total for Gondola of only 2% invalid. There is no way of knowing for sure if the improperly invalidated votes came from that polling station, but it seems likely.

Comment?
Afraid to tell the boss the bad news?

Senior Frelimo officials have been trumpeting victory in both the Nacala mayoral race and in the Beira assembly context since last week, when parallel counts showed this to be unlikely. In Nacala the CEC has not yet posted the final results, as required by law, but seems to have found an extra 1000 votes for the Frelimo candidate. In Beira the STAE provisional count stopped before it reached 100%, and now the CEC has announced a result which many do not find credible.

In both cases the National Election Commission will be forced to consider the data from the polling station results sheets (editais) being input into the computer systems by the provincial elections commissions, and use that if it does not agree with the intermediate results from the CECs. And if the final results are not accurate, then Renamo and Daviz Simango will simply take their copies of the editais to the Constitutional Council and appeal.

The high numbers for Frelimo in these two contests that do not correspond to parallel counts begin to feel like panic. Are senior officials in Beira and Nacala afraid to tell Frelimo that it lost, and so have inflated the numbers a bit, knowing that the CNE will take away the extra votes? Perhaps they feel it is better for the CNE to take blame.
Joseph Hanlon

Small correction
In Bulletin 16 in the lead article “Count proceeding with more openness” the first sentence of the 4th paragraph should read
“The process has been more open and efficient than in the past.”

============================
Mozambique Political Process Bulletin
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga -- Research assistant: Tania Frechauth
Material may be freely reprinted and circulated. Please cite the Bulletin.
Published by AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa,
and CIP, Centro de Integridade Publica
=========================================
To subscribe: Para assinar:
In English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub
Em Portugues: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
To unsubscribe: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-unsub
=========================================
Also on the web: Tambem na internet:
In English: http://www.cip.org.mz/pub2008/index_en.asp
Em Portugues: http://www.cip.org.mz/pub2008/
=============================
This mailing is the personal responsibility of Joseph Hanlon, and does not necessarily represent the views of the Open University.
==


The Open University is incorporated by Royal Charter (RC 000391), an exempt charity in England & Wales and a charity registered in Scotland (SC 038302).