IS POVERTY DECREASING?
NEW DEBATE

Mozambique's claim to being an economic success is based in part on its claim to have a very rapid fall in poverty. That claim has been challenged. In two conference papers I argued that the decline in poverty is exaggerated. The gap between rich and poor is widening with most of the growth in GDP going to the top 20% while the poor are becoming steadily poorer and unable to properly feed their children.

The government asked Channing Arndt of the University of Copenhagen (formerly of Purdue University) and the Ministry of Planning and Development – and one of the main architects of the poverty decline figures criticised as exaggerated – to respond for the government. I then replied.

This debate is now on the web, at
http://www.open.ac.uk/technology/mozambique/
and there are no punches pulled.

Arndt writes: “Hanlon’s primary assertions do not withstand scrutiny.” I accuse Arndt of wishful thinking, of ignoring overwhelming evidence that living conditions are becoming worse for the majority of Mozambicans, and of seeing the main problem (in his own words) as one of “communicating progress in the fight against poverty”.

This debate goes to the heart of government and donor policy. We both agree the Mozambique remains very poor, but Dr Arndt’s paper says that present policy is working to reduce poverty – indeed, quite rapidly – while I claim to show the policy is failing – poverty is worsening and a change is policy is needed.

Channing Arndt's comments and my reply can be distributed. Comments invited: to j.hanlon@open.ac.uk.