2009 Elections Mozambique political process bulletin Number 30
1 November 2009 - am
www.elections2009.cip.org.mz
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga Research assistant: Tânia Frechauth
Published by CIP, Centro de Integridade Pública and AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Material may be freely reprinted. Please cite the Bulletin.
To subscribe in English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub Para assinar em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
New parliament:
Frelimo 192, Renamo 48, MDM 8
Using the provisional count of 72% of polling stations, it is estimated that Frelimo will have 192 seats, Renamo 48, and MDM 8. MDM will have 5 in Sofala and 3 in Maputo city, and this is definite because 100% of the vote has been counted there. It is unlikely to win seats in Inhambane or Niassa, the other two provinces in which it is standing.
MDM did well in Maputo city and in Daviz Simango’s home province of Sofala, and has done better than any third party in Mozambique. But this year did not allow enough time to organise, and Daviz was unable to break into any other province. He has won 8% of the vote in Maputo province, Mancia and Zambezia, but only gained 5% or 6% elsewhere, and came a poor second to Afonso Dhlakama throughout the north. Not the great breakthrough he had hoped for, but enough of a base to build for 2013 local elections and 2014 national elections.
If MDM had been allowed to stand everywhere?
We have also tried to estimate how many seats the MDM (Movimento Democrático de Moçambique) might have won had it been allowed to stand in all provinces, and we suggest it could have gained 9 more seats, at the expense of Renamo. We have done this estimate using the presidential vote and it is set out in the table below.
But note that the presidential vote can only be an approximation. It gives a correct distribution for Sofala but is slightly wrong for Maputo city (1 seat less) and Inhambane (1 seat more) – it is not strictly true that everyone who voted for Daviz would also have voted for MDM; some votes clearly went to small parties. So at best this gives a rough guess as to how MDM might have done, had it been able to stand.
Assembleia da Republica -
First evidence of improperly
spoiled ballot papers
MDM is presenting the first evidence of polling station staff improperly and illegally spoiling ballot papers. In polling station 0056 at EPC Esturro, Beira, there were 124 invalid ballot papers (nulos) out of a total of 388 – this is 32% compared to a normal 3%, and so it is immediately suspect.
The MDM is distributing a video which it says is from this polling station, and the video goes through a whole stack of nulos. Nearly all have an X next to Daviz Simango and then an ink mark somewhere else on the ballot paper. There are many ballot papers in which there is a similar ink mark in exactly the same place on each ballot. This makes the ballot invalid, because there are marks for more than one candidate.
The only way this could happen is if someone in the polling station during the count had taken ink and invalidated many votes for Daviz.
In 2004 and 2008, there were a number of examples of this. In response, a new polling staff code of conduct make clear that this is a crime punishable by imprisonment. With the evidence of the result sheet and the video, it will be interesting to see if anyone is prosecuted.
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Mozambique Political Process Bulletin
Editor: Joseph Hanlon (j.hanlon@open.ac.uk)
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga -- Research assistant: Tânia Frechauth
Material may be freely reprinted and circulated. Please cite the Bulletin.
Published by CIP, Centro de Integridade Pública and AWEPA, the European Parliamentarians for Africa
___________________________________________________________________________________
To subscribe: Para assinar:
In English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub
Em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
To unsubscribe: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-unsub
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Also on the web: Também na internet:
In English: News on the elections: http://www.elections2009.cip.org.mz
Previous issues of the Bulletin: http://www.bulletin.cip.org.mz
Em Português: Noticias sobre as Eleições: http://www.eleicoes2009.cip.org.mz
Boletims anteriores: http://www.boletim.cip.org.mz
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Correspondentes populares -- Envie a sua mensagem
82 986 5659 ou 84 386 5659 ou cipmoz@tvcabo.co.mz
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