Man of the people

South Africa


May 9th 2009
From Economist.com

Jacob Zuma, South Africa's new president, has many promises to keep

AP
AFTER the ANC’s landslide victory in April’s election, Jacob Zuma’s election as president was a formality when on Wednesday May 6th parliament officially elected him to the top post. Three days later, on Saturday, 30,000 people, including representatives from 29 governments, were expected to gather in Pretoria, the capital, to attend his inauguration.

It is still unclear what his presidency will mean for South Africa. So far, in terms of policy, he has been something of an enigma. He fought this election as the champion of the poor and a man of the people, in contrast to his more cerebral predecessor, Thabo Mbeki. He has even suggested setting up a hotline for the public to report corruption directly to him. Mr Zuma has talked much of bringing the fruits of liberation to South Africa’s poor. Now he has to get on with it.

Mr Zuma recently set out five priorities: land redistribution; education; health; the fight against crime; and finding decent work for all South Africans. He promised to be more hands-on and to work with his opponents.

But doubts remain. On May 1st Julius Malema, the head of the ANC's powerful Youth League, who has been accused of being one of Mr Zuma’s leading “bully boys”, described Helen Zille, the head of the opposition Democratic Alliance and new leader of the Western Cape province, who is white, as a “racist little girl”. Such comments will make co-operation more difficult.

After 15 years of virtually unchallenged rule, the ANC stands accused of corruption, arrogance and cronyism. Mr Zuma has not been immune to this. Charges of corruption against him have been dismissed on a legal technicality but he has never been acquitted of them. He denies the allegations and has vowed to stamp out corruption but, with the shadow of these charges still lingering, it may be difficult for him to lead a campaign against it.

Though it won the election convincingly, the ANC failed to win the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution. Some of Mr Zuma’s comments about the Constitutional Court have raised eyebrows. After the ANC’s victory, he promised to defend the constitution. But only last month, he argued for a review of the court’s status, “because I don’t think we should have people who are almost like God in a democracy.” He may still be able to browbeat enough parliamentarians from other, smaller parties into voting for any changes the ANC wishes to pass.

One of those expected to attend the inauguration is Robert Mugabe, president of Zimbabwe. South Africa’s policy towards its desperate neighbour will be an important test for the new president. In the past, Mr Zuma has cast doubt upon Mr Mbeki’s policy of “quiet diplomacy”, promising a tougher stance. Recently, however, he has toned down his criticism and said that his approach would be the same as his predecessor’s.

Mr Zuma’s new cabinet, which he is expected to appoint soon after his inauguration, should give some clues to his likely new direction. Businessmen will be pleased if he keeps Trevor Manuel as finance minister. Those who fear a lurch towards populism will be rattled if he appoints Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, who has been convicted of fraud and other crimes, to a post in government.

Another important test will be his policies on HIV/AIDS. At his trial three years ago for rape, for which he was acquitted, he admitted having unprotected sex with a woman he knew to be HIV-positive (though he then headed the National Aids Council), claiming that taking a shower afterwards would protect him. Under Mr Mbeki, South Africa’s HIV/AIDS policies were, until a few years ago, disastrous. It will be a challenge for Mr Zuma to push policy along the right track.

Mr Zuma takes power at a hard time. South Africa is slipping into its first recession in 17 years. Its strict banking regulations have protected it somewhat from the global banking crisis but unemployment is soaring, mining and manufacturing are declining and property prices have suffered their steepest drop since 1986.

So Mr Zuma will have less money to play with. That will make his promises of free health care and education harder to deliver. After his election victory, Mr Zuma proclaimed “a new era of hope”. In early June he will outline his programme for this new era in a state-of-the-union speech. He has raised great expectations for change among the country’s poor black majority.
In THE ECONOMIST