Ruling Uganda
Aug 4th 2008From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
Uganda's long-serving president, Yoweri Museveni, is losing the support of some allies
Elements of the ruling party are reportedly dissatisfied with the leadership of Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986. Rumours of an alliance with the opposition may be overstated, but the president will need all his political acumen to earn another successful term.
Uganda's next presidential election may not be due until 2011, but campaigning is already effectively under way following an announcement by the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, that he is prepared to stand again. If completed, the term would take Mr Museveni—who in 1986 commented "The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power"—to his 30th year in power.
Mr Museveni has shown himself to be politically astute, and he won presidential elections in 1996 and 2001 by large margins. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results and Mr Museveni's recent announcement comes amid speculation about the condition of his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party and rumours about dissatisfaction with his leadership. Attention has focused on a group of NRM stalwarts who are reportedly plotting a strategy with opposition party members to defeat Mr Museveni in 2011. These are ambitious politicians who see their advancement blocked, and some of them represent areas of Uganda where regional tension has been building. This growing regional pressure currently represents the greatest challenge for the president, as it often manifests itself in national debate—opposition to the lands bill from Buganda (an area of Uganda with a constitutional monarchy, a local parliament and some devolved powers to elected regional assemblies) is a recent example. The dissenters' strategy appears to involve persuading NRM politicians who have a strong local following in those areas where Mr Museveni expects to do well to stand against him in the 2011 presidential poll. This could split NRM support and prevent Mr Museveni from polling sufficient votes to claim victory in the first round. The opposition would then unite around one candidate in the second round, and have a good chance of winning.
Strength of challenge to the president is unclear
It is not yet clear how serious the threat is to Mr Museveni. The speculation could simply be coming from disgruntled individuals within the NRM—some of whom were sacked on corruption allegations—together with frustrated members of the opposition parties, who sense an opportunity to aggravate the government. The president himself has no doubts about the strength of his grassroots support, and has advised supporters to ignore rumours of a split in the party. However Moses Kigongo, national vice chairman of the NRM since 1986 and someone who retains substantial influence in the party, recently talked about internal divisions that are undermining the party’s mandate to govern.
Mr Museveni is probably correct in his assessment of the strength of his support nationwide, where he remains popular, especially in rural areas. Yet the confirmation of his intention to serve another term, three years before the next election is due, betrays a sense of some underlying anxiety. During the 22 years he has been in power Mr Museveni has shown himself to be politically shrewd, and it would be surprising if he did not make efforts to address the regional problem in the forthcoming months—a cabinet reshuffle is feasible, for example.
Oil revenue could be used for patronage
Oil revenue could also bolster his chances of success in 2011, since the prospect of Uganda as a net oil exporter is coming closer to reality. Recent finds have confirmed the potential of the Lake Albert Rift Valley Basin as a major oil-producing area, and limited initial production will come on stream in 2009. Oil revenue should therefore be adding significantly to government coffers by 2011. Mr Museveni has said that the resources will be used to develop the country’s infrastructure and has ruled out their use to boost consumption and salaries. However, this may prove a difficult promise to keep in the run-up to the presidential election, and creating local public administration jobs is an obvious vote winner.
Known quantity?
A fourth term for Mr Museveni would dismay many in Uganda. He has ruled autocratically at times; media outlets have been shut down, political opponents have been harassed and--perhaps most worrying for the country's democratic future--he has total control of the army and increasingly the police. Against that, Mr Museveni has also presided over 20 years of stability and uninterrupted economic growth, an immense achievement for a country emerging from years of misrule in the 1980s. Government figures indicate the economy grew at a rate of 8.9% in 2007/08 and that poverty continues to fall; this is an impressive performance for a landlocked country suffering from drought, the disruption to trade caused by the political crisis in neighbouring Kenya, and high energy and food prices. If oil changes the economic dynamic, the political stability Mr Museveni offers could be useful in managing the transition. He starts as firm favourite for the 2011 election but will need all his political acumen to earn another successful term.
Aug 4th 2008From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
Uganda's long-serving president, Yoweri Museveni, is losing the support of some allies
Elements of the ruling party are reportedly dissatisfied with the leadership of Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986. Rumours of an alliance with the opposition may be overstated, but the president will need all his political acumen to earn another successful term.
Uganda's next presidential election may not be due until 2011, but campaigning is already effectively under way following an announcement by the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, that he is prepared to stand again. If completed, the term would take Mr Museveni—who in 1986 commented "The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power"—to his 30th year in power.
Mr Museveni has shown himself to be politically astute, and he won presidential elections in 1996 and 2001 by large margins. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results and Mr Museveni's recent announcement comes amid speculation about the condition of his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party and rumours about dissatisfaction with his leadership. Attention has focused on a group of NRM stalwarts who are reportedly plotting a strategy with opposition party members to defeat Mr Museveni in 2011. These are ambitious politicians who see their advancement blocked, and some of them represent areas of Uganda where regional tension has been building. This growing regional pressure currently represents the greatest challenge for the president, as it often manifests itself in national debate—opposition to the lands bill from Buganda (an area of Uganda with a constitutional monarchy, a local parliament and some devolved powers to elected regional assemblies) is a recent example. The dissenters' strategy appears to involve persuading NRM politicians who have a strong local following in those areas where Mr Museveni expects to do well to stand against him in the 2011 presidential poll. This could split NRM support and prevent Mr Museveni from polling sufficient votes to claim victory in the first round. The opposition would then unite around one candidate in the second round, and have a good chance of winning.
Strength of challenge to the president is unclear
It is not yet clear how serious the threat is to Mr Museveni. The speculation could simply be coming from disgruntled individuals within the NRM—some of whom were sacked on corruption allegations—together with frustrated members of the opposition parties, who sense an opportunity to aggravate the government. The president himself has no doubts about the strength of his grassroots support, and has advised supporters to ignore rumours of a split in the party. However Moses Kigongo, national vice chairman of the NRM since 1986 and someone who retains substantial influence in the party, recently talked about internal divisions that are undermining the party’s mandate to govern.
Mr Museveni is probably correct in his assessment of the strength of his support nationwide, where he remains popular, especially in rural areas. Yet the confirmation of his intention to serve another term, three years before the next election is due, betrays a sense of some underlying anxiety. During the 22 years he has been in power Mr Museveni has shown himself to be politically shrewd, and it would be surprising if he did not make efforts to address the regional problem in the forthcoming months—a cabinet reshuffle is feasible, for example.
Oil revenue could be used for patronage
Oil revenue could also bolster his chances of success in 2011, since the prospect of Uganda as a net oil exporter is coming closer to reality. Recent finds have confirmed the potential of the Lake Albert Rift Valley Basin as a major oil-producing area, and limited initial production will come on stream in 2009. Oil revenue should therefore be adding significantly to government coffers by 2011. Mr Museveni has said that the resources will be used to develop the country’s infrastructure and has ruled out their use to boost consumption and salaries. However, this may prove a difficult promise to keep in the run-up to the presidential election, and creating local public administration jobs is an obvious vote winner.
Known quantity?
A fourth term for Mr Museveni would dismay many in Uganda. He has ruled autocratically at times; media outlets have been shut down, political opponents have been harassed and--perhaps most worrying for the country's democratic future--he has total control of the army and increasingly the police. Against that, Mr Museveni has also presided over 20 years of stability and uninterrupted economic growth, an immense achievement for a country emerging from years of misrule in the 1980s. Government figures indicate the economy grew at a rate of 8.9% in 2007/08 and that poverty continues to fall; this is an impressive performance for a landlocked country suffering from drought, the disruption to trade caused by the political crisis in neighbouring Kenya, and high energy and food prices. If oil changes the economic dynamic, the political stability Mr Museveni offers could be useful in managing the transition. He starts as firm favourite for the 2011 election but will need all his political acumen to earn another successful term.
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