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O Governador do Banco da Inglaterra preve uma aumento da inflacao nos proximos meses devido ao incremento no preco de alimentos, energia e precos de importacao.
Espera-se que a indice do preco do consumidor (CPI) ultrapasse os 3 por cento, caso as taxas de juro sejam reduzidas, o que forcara o Governador do Banco da Inglaterra a ter que escrever uma carta ao Primeiro Ministro, a explicar as causas da subida da inflacao.
Para mais detalhes viajemos na companhia de Peter Garnham do Financial Times.
Mervy King, the governor of the Bank of England, warned inflation could rise sharply in the coming months beacause of rises in food, energy and import prices.
The pound reversed early losses after the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report tempered expectations for aggressive cuts in UK interest rates.
The Bank said its projections for UK consumer price inflation were higher than in its November report, particularly in the near-term.
It said consumer price inflation (CPI) could well rise above 3 per cent in the short-term if rates fell as expected, forcing the governor to write a letter of explanation to the chancellor.
Analysts said the projections suggested the Bank of England believed UK interest rates could fall by 50 basis points to 4.75 per cent in the coming months, but that expectations of a 75 basis-point cut might be overdone.
James Knightley at ING said while the Bank might believe the market had got a little ahead of itself on rate cut expectations, he still believed that the deteriorating global backdrop would further dampen price pressures. He said weaker domestic demand would lead to inflation dropping well below 2 per cent in 2009.
“Consequently, we retain our view that the Bank of England will be cutting rates to 4.50 per cent by the fourth quarter of this year, with the risks skewed to policy easing coming earlier rather than later,” said Mr Knightley.
The pound rose 0.1 per cent to $1.9632 against the dollar, climbed 0.1 per cent to £0.7427 against the euro and gained 0.1 per cent to Y210.80 against the yen.
Earlier in the session, the pound had fallen to a low of $1.9551 against the dollar after a survey revealed more bad news on the state of the UK housing market.
A survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors revealed UK house prices fell at their fastest pace in more than a decade in the three months to January.
The balance of surveyors reporting that house prices rose over the previous three months fell to -54.7 per cent in January, from -49.1 per cent in December and -40.6 per cent in November.
This was the worst reading since the end of the last UK housing crash in November 1992, while the fall in the index from its October peak of 46.6 was the largest since 1988 to 1989, at the start of the last housing crash.
Howard Archer at Global Insight said the survey would heighten concern that the housing market was headed for a sharp correction in the face of stretched affordability and tighter lending practices resulting from the credit crunch.
“While lower interest rates should help matters over the coming months, we expect house prices to fall by 5 per cent in both 2008 and 2009,” he said.
“An extended, major economic slowdown and rising unemployment would markedly increase the risk of a housing market crash.”
Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.1 per cent to $1.4558 against the euro, but was flat at Y107.30 against the yen.
Meanwhile, the Swedish krona rose 0.4 per cent to SKr9.3525 against the euro and climbed 0.3 per cent to SKr6.4250 against the dollar after a surprise rise in Swedish interest rates.
The Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank, raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent. The move wrong-footed analysts, who were expecting increased worries over global growth to keep the authorities from acting.
Ben May at Capital Economics said the decision confirmed that the Riksbank remained concerned about the outlook for inflation.
However, he said he believed slowing growth will prompt the Riksbank to cut rates before the end of this year.
“For now, though, the move will clearly put upward pressure on rate expectations and the krona.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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