O fenomeno Obama nao para de surpreender! Depois da historica vitoria em De moines, Iowa a semana passada, o candidato democrata continua na lideranca das sondagens de opiniao em New Hampshire! Alias, a sua performance no debate de Sabado a noite, e o desconforto demonstrado por Hilary ja davam indicacoes sobre quem dominaria as sondagens!
Do lado Republicano, John McCain parece estar a recuperar os pontos pedidos em De Moines. Apesar de ter uma proposta de politica externa meio agressiva, parece-nos que este veterano da politica Norte-americana e antigo combatente no Vietname parece vir a ser a escolha do Partido Republicano.
Se estas tendencias se mantiverem teremos uma campanha eleitoral interessante com Obama do lado dos Democratas e McCain do lado dos Republicanos! Mas como dizia ainda e cedo aa prognosticos finais!
Se Obama vencer New Hampshire, entao a inevitabiliade da candidatura da Senadora Clinton estara em ruinas e sera quase impossivel parar a subida de Obama! Do lad Cnservaor as duvidas persistem sendo para a interessate confirmar e que lugar ficara Huckabee para nos entre terceiro a quart lugar, pois espearamos que o ex-Presidente do Municipio de Nova Yorque, Rudy Giulianni consiga uma boa percentagem de votos de New Hampshire. Interessante sera tambem o resultado e New Hampshire para provar se astrategia de Rudy de nao participar na votacao e Iowa surtiu os resultados esperados ou nao!
Amanha Terca Feira, dis 08.01.08, teremos os resultados da votacao em New Hampshire! Para mais detalhes dos esenvolvimentos do fim de semana, embarquemos na viagem a New Hampshire na companhia de John Whitesides, Correspondente Politico da Reuters.
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama rocketed to a 10-point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire one day before their showdown in the state's presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.
Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona also began to pull away from rival Mitt Romney, opening a five-point lead on the Massachusetts governor as what had been tight races in both parties began to open up.
This is the first of the rolling New Hampshire polls taken entirely after last week's caucuses in Iowa, where Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee scored breakthrough wins that left Clinton and Romney reeling.
Obama, an Illinois senator bidding to make history as the first black U.S. president, gained 11 points on Clinton to lead the one-time Democratic front-runner 39 percent to 29 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third with 19 percent.
"This is a breathtaking movement in Obama's direction," said pollster John Zogby. "It's a surge for Obama and movement away from Clinton."
He said the rush toward Obama was even more pronounced in the one day of polling after Saturday's Democratic debate in Manchester, where Clinton went on the attack against Obama and drew a rebuke from Edwards.
"It's almost Iowa redux," Zogby said. "In the closing days in Iowa we saw Clinton losing her strong support among women, liberals and Democrats, and it's happening again."
He said Obama had a big and growing lead among independents and held the edge among young voters, moderates and union members.
The rolling poll of 844 likely Democratic voters and 834 likely Republican voters was taken Friday through Sunday. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
NEXT BATTLEGROUND
New Hampshire's primary on Tuesday is the next battleground in the state-by-state process of choosing Republican and Democratic candidates for November's election to replace President George W. Bush.
The pressure is on Clinton and Romney to revive their campaigns after disappointing showings in Iowa, and a second consecutive loss for either could doom their comebacks.
Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady, finished third in Iowa. Romney, who at one time led polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, finished second.
McCain sailed past Romney in the new poll to open a five-point lead at 34 percent to 29 percent. Huckabee, a Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, dropped back slightly to 10 percent, barely holding third place over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 9 percent.
"It was a big day for McCain," Zogby said. "He maintains a very big lead among independents, but his problem is that he won't draw as many independents as he did in 2000."
McCain won the state's primary that year with help from a surge of independent support, but eventually lost the Republican nomination to Bush.
About 6 percent in each party remain undecided, according to the New Hampshire poll.
In the Democratic race, former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was in fourth place at 6 percent, ahead of Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 2 percent.
In the Republican race, Texas Rep. Ron Paul was at 6 percent. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson was at 3 percent and California Rep. Duncan Hunter was at 1 percent.
The rolling tracking poll will continue one more day until New Hampshire's vote on Tuesday. In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in order to track changing momentum.
(Editing by Philip Barbara)
(For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)
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